CosmoRisk is an educational and exploratory tool. It is not an official source of impact predictions.
- Orbital and physical data come from NASA/JPL and carry their own uncertainties. Diameters marked as estimates can be wrong by a factor of two.
- The force model leaves out non-gravitational forces, relativity and asteroid perturbations, and it uses an analytic planetary ephemeris. Near-term results agree with JPL closely; long-range results, especially after deep encounters, are illustrative only. See docs/physics.md.
- The Monte Carlo impact probabilities come from finite samples and our own model. The Torino levels follow our digitisation of the official chart.
- The deflection results show the physics of the methods. They are not mission designs.
For authoritative information on asteroid impact risk, see:
- NASA/JPL CNEOS Sentry: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/
- ESA NEOCC risk list: https://neo.ssa.esa.int/risk-list
- NASA Planetary Defense Coordination Office: https://www.nasa.gov/planetarydefense
The software is provided "as is", without warranty of any kind; see LICENSE.