diff --git a/.github/codeql-cpp.yml b/.github/codeql-cpp.yml
index d99cdb559244..15a5a68ae67b 100644
--- a/.github/codeql-cpp.yml
+++ b/.github/codeql-cpp.yml
@@ -3,3 +3,4 @@ name: "Custom CodeQL Analysis"
 queries:
   - uses: ./.github/codeql/custom-queries/cpp/deprecatedFunctionUsage.ql
   - uses: ./.github/codeql/custom-queries/cpp/dslDatasetHoldReleMismatch.ql
+  - uses: ./.github/codeql/custom-queries/cpp/AssignmentOfComparisonAsCondition.ql
diff --git a/.github/codeql/custom-queries/cpp/AssignmentOfComparisonAsCondition.ql b/.github/codeql/custom-queries/cpp/AssignmentOfComparisonAsCondition.ql
new file mode 100644
index 000000000000..394c16eb1146
--- /dev/null
+++ b/.github/codeql/custom-queries/cpp/AssignmentOfComparisonAsCondition.ql
@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
+/**
+ * @name Ambiguous assignment-of-comparison in a condition
+ * @description Finds any assignment (`=`, `+=`, `-=`, `|=`, …) that appears in
+ *              a branching condition and whose rvalue is an unparenthesized
+ *              comparison.
+ *
+ *              Comparison binds tighter than assignment, so
+ *                `if ((x = foo() < 0))`  /  `if ((x += foo() < 0))`
+ *              assigns the boolean result of the comparison. Programmers often
+ *              meant
+ *                `if ((x = foo()) < 0)`  /  `if ((x += foo()) < 0)`
+ *              (assign/update then compare). GCC `-Wparentheses` is silenced by
+ *              the outer parentheses in both forms, so the compiler does not
+ *              catch the mistake (see openzfs/zfs#18874).
+ *
+ *              Rule (intentionally simple):
+ *                assignment in a branch condition
+ *                AND rvalue is a comparison
+ *                AND that comparison is not parenthesized.
+ *
+ *              That is enough:
+ *                - Explicit assign-then-compare `((x = foo()) < 0)` has no
+ *                  comparison as the assignment's rvalue.
+ *                - Explicit compare-then-assign `((x = (foo() < 0)))` has a
+ *                  parenthesized comparison as the rvalue.
+ *                - Parentheses that only wrap a subexpression of the comparison
+ *                  (e.g. `(foo())`) do not count as parenthesizing the
+ *                  comparison itself.
+ * @kind problem
+ * @problem.severity error
+ * @precision high
+ * @id cpp/ambiguous-assignment-of-comparison-in-condition
+ * @tags reliability
+ *       correctness
+ *       external/cwe/cwe-783
+ *       external/cwe/cwe-480
+ */
+
+import cpp
+
+/**
+ * The condition expression of a branching construct
+ * (if / while / do-while / for / ternary `?:`).
+ */
+Expr branchCondition() {
+  result = any(IfStmt s).getCondition()
+  or
+  result = any(WhileStmt s).getCondition()
+  or
+  result = any(DoStmt s).getCondition()
+  or
+  result = any(ForStmt s).getCondition()
+  or
+  result = any(ConditionalExpr c).getCondition()
+}
+
+/**
+ * Holds if `e` is the branch condition, or appears anywhere under it
+ * (including under `&&` / `||` / `!`, and through parentheses/conversions).
+ */
+predicate inBranchCondition(Expr e) {
+  e = branchCondition()
+  or
+  // Structural child of something already in a branch condition
+  exists(Expr parent |
+    parent.getAChild() = e and
+    inBranchCondition(parent)
+  )
+  or
+  // ParenthesisExpr and other conversions hang off getConversion(), not getAChild()
+  exists(Expr base |
+    base.getConversion+() = e and
+    inBranchCondition(base)
+  )
+  or
+  exists(Expr conv |
+    e.getConversion+() = conv and
+    inBranchCondition(conv)
+  )
+}
+
+from Assignment a, ComparisonOperation cmp
+where
+  // Core rule: assignment in a branch condition whose rvalue is an
+  // unparenthesized comparison. Covers `=` and all compound forms (`+=`, …)
+  // because Assignment is the common base class.
+  a.getRValue() = cmp and
+  not cmp.isParenthesised() and
+  inBranchCondition(a) and
+  // Skip AST from templates that were never instantiated (incomplete / non-code).
+  not a.isFromUninstantiatedTemplate(_)
+select a,
+  "Assignment (`" + a.getOperator() +
+    "`) in a branch condition has an unparenthesized comparison as its rvalue; " +
+    "likely meant `((x " + a.getOperator() + " expr) op val)` rather than " +
+    "`(x " + a.getOperator() + " expr op val)`."